Load-shedding warning for South Africa

Load-shedding is not a thing of the past yet, with President Ramaphosa joining a chorus of warnings that power cuts may come back and that South Africans should not become complacent. 

South Africa has not experienced load-shedding for over 120 days, the longest streak since 2020. Some South Africans are increasingly optimistic that this may be the permanent end of load-shedding.

Even Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati said that the utility’s board sees light at the end of the tunnel and is confident that the permanent end of power cuts is near. 

This is on the back of the performance of its coal fleet stabilising and gradually improving to levels last seen five years ago. 

“What is important is that our people at Eskom have done what many people thought they could not do. Many people thought this was a dead horse, and this horse now appears to be running,” Nyati said. 

“We can see light at the end of the tunnel, and we are confident, with the team we have, that the end of load-shedding is near.”

However, President Ramaphosa has repeated his warning that load-shedding could make a return, especially if South Africa becomes complacent. 

Speaking to Parliament this week, Ramaphosa said the country has made good progress in bringing load-shedding to an end. 

“We have been working closely with independent power producers in steering their projects through to the construction phase, contributing significantly to the reduction in the severity of load shedding,” he said.

“Our electricity system is still vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out a possibility of further load shedding,” he said.

This is the second such warning this month from the President. In a weekly letter earlier this month after South Africa crossed 100 days without load-shedding, he urged South Africans not to relax. 

This appears to be borne out by data coming out of Eskom, with the utility saying its winter outlook is still in full force. 

This outlook, shown below, predicted the utility would keep load-shedding to an average of stage 2 during the colder months. 

The report’s 52-week outlook forecasts that electricity demand will be much higher than available generating capacity every week of the year ahead.

Eskom used colour codes ranging from green (no shortage) to red (worst case), indicating the absence or presence of a capacity constraint, as shown below:

• Green – Adequate generation to meet demand and reserves.
• Yellow – Smaller than 1,000 MW, possibly short to meet reserves.
• Orange – 1,001 MW to 2,000 MW, definitely short to meet reserves and possibly demand.
• Red – Over 2,001 MW short to meet demand and reserves.

In the utility’s latest Weekly Systems Status Update Report, the 52-week outlook is still dominated by red. This means Eskom expects to be unable to meet demand for every week over the next year, bar four. 

In a recent statement, Eskom also said managing the morning and evening demand peaks has become increasingly difficult. 

Thus far, the utility has managed to avoid load-shedding but has had to implement load reduction, which involves cutting back on electricity supply to high-demand areas to prevent infrastructure overload.

The utility clarified that load reduction is not the same as load-shedding, as there is still enough generating capacity to meet the nation’s electricity requirements.

“Load reduction is a longstanding practice used by Eskom in certain areas when there is sufficient electricity, but the integrity of a transformer is at risk due to excessive load,” it explained.

Ramaphosa’s warnings echo those of energy experts and Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. 

Ramokgopa said it is in the nature of Eskom’s work for it to suffer setbacks, as it is such a complex organisation to manage. 

“We are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that’s why you can’t speak with great confidence that load-shedding is behind us. That would be a false claim that can’t be substantiated,” he said. 

Energy analyst Chris Yelland also warned that Eskom might still need to implement power cuts this winter.

Yelland mentioned that although load-shedding has significantly decreased in intensity and frequency, power outages are still a possibility.

He explained that one reason for the reduction in load-shedding is the warmer-than-average winter and the decreased demand as households and businesses cut back on their reliance on Eskom.

This trend is unlikely to continue, as demand will rise during colder periods and when major industries increase their production.

Even though large mining companies have invested substantial amounts in renewable energy projects to power their operations, reducing both emissions and dependence on Eskom, they still consume a large amount of electricity.

Smelters across South Africa, owned by companies like Glencore and South32, are particularly heavy electricity users and cannot be fully powered by renewable energy sources.

Former Reserve Bank governor Kuben Naidoo has cautioned that once the industry ramps up demand again, load-shedding will return.

“My personal view is that part of the reason we’re not experiencing load-shedding now is due to the mining sector being in a deep recession,” Naidoo commented.

“If the mining sector fully resumes operations, load-shedding will return. Therefore, we must continue investing in renewable energy and other energy sources to mitigate this issue.”