Eskom’s true winter load-shedding revealed
Eskom’s official data shows that the power utility implemented load-shedding between 2,042MW and 6,929MW in June and July. It equates to stage 3 to stage 7 load-shedding.
This year, South Africa experienced the worst load-shedding since Eskom started implementing rotational power cuts in 2007.
Data from The Outlier and EskomSePush shows that South Africa was hit with load-shedding every day of the year – except one.
Although it is only July, the country has already experienced significantly more load-shedding than in 2022.
However, it only tells part of the story. In the first seven months of this year, there were already 36.4 full days of stage 6 load-shedding. There were only 8.3 days in the whole of last year.
There were already more full days of stage 3, stage 4, and stage 5 load-shedding in the first seven months of 2023 than in the whole of 2022.
Some consolation is that winter load-shedding did not reach stage 8 or higher as predicted by many energy experts.
In May, Eskom’s acting CEO Calib Cassim warned that stage 8 load-shedding was a possibility as electricity demand increased as temperatures fell.
Eskom’s winter outlook revealed a big demand and supply imbalance, which could lead to stage 8 load-shedding should its interventions prove ineffective.
“If unplanned outages average 18,000MW for the winter period, load-shedding will be required every day and implemented up to stage 8,” Eskom said.
Despite dealing with three units at Kusile that are not operating, Eskom has been able to prevent the country from facing stage 8 power cuts.
Eskom achieved better-than-expected performance by using more diesel open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), limiting planned maintenance, and low demand.
However, the country is not out of the woods yet. Energy analyst Clyde Mallinson warned that things could quickly change when temperatures drop.
He highlighted that South Africa is heading towards the end of winter when demand for electricity peaks, putting immense pressure on Eskom’s ageing coal-powered fleet.
Eskom’s coal fleet has been unreliable, and he warned that the good performance during winter so far may end.
Mallinson warned, “If the coal fleet has a bit of a wobble when demand is high, then yes, we may see our first incidents of stage 7.”
The table below, courtesy of The Outlier, shows the load-shedding breakdown over the last decade.
Raw load-shedding numbers
Eskom regularly informs South Africans about the official load-shedding stage, but that does not tell the full story.
Eskom’s load-shedding data shows that power cuts across South Africa are significantly worse than the officially reported stages.
The power utility clearly defines each load-shedding stage based on the number of megawatts it cuts.
Up to 1,000MW cut from the national grid equals stage 1, up to 2,000MW equals stage 2, up to 3,000MW equals stage 3, and so on.
These straightforward definitions give everyone a good idea of how much power is cut from the grid and the impact on the economy.
Applying this definition to Eskom’s load-shedding data in megawatts shows that the country has essentially experienced up to stage 7 load-shedding this winter.
The table below shows the official load-shedding stage Eskom reported, how much power was cut from the grid, and what stage it is using the official definition.
| Date | Load-shedding | Reported Stage | Defined Stage |
| Thu, 1 June | 6,684 MW | Stage 6 | Stage 7 |
| Fri, 2 June | 3,967 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 4 |
| Sat, 3 June | 3,978 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 4 |
| Sun, 4 June | 2,042 MW | Stage 2 | Stage 3 |
| Mon, 5 June | 4,553 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Tue, 6 June | 3,271 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Wed, 7 June | 3,136 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Thu, 8 June | 2,939 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 3 |
| Fri, 9 June | 3,060 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Sat, 10 June | 4,091 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Sun, 11 June | 3,905 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 4 |
| Mon, 12 June | 3,146 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Tue, 13 June | 3,252 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Wed, 14 June | 3,123 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Thu, 15 June | 2,949 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 3 |
| Fri, 16 June | 2,912 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 3 |
| Sat, 17 June | 3,000 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 3 |
| Sun, 18 June | 3,052 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Mon, 19 June | 3,161 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Tue, 20 June | 3,302 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Wed, 21 June | 3,397 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Thu, 22 June | 3,258 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Fri, 23 June | 3,041 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Sat, 24 June | 3,044 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Sun, 25 June | 3,108 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Mon, 26 June | 3,287 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Tue, 27 June | 3,218 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Wed, 28 June | 3,281 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Thu, 29 June | 3,121 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Fri, 30 June | 3,076 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Sat, 1 July | 3,032 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Sun, 2 July | 3,184 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Mon, 3 July | 3,379 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Tue, 4 July | 3,276 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Wed, 5 July | 3,454MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Thu, 6 July | 3,369 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Fri, 7 July | 2,795 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 3 |
| Sat, 8 July | 2,708 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 3 |
| Sun, 9 July | 3,054 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Mon, 10 July | 3,771 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 4 |
| Tue, 11 July | 4,082 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Wed, 12 July | 6,432 MW | Stage 6 | Stage 7 |
| Thu, 13 July | 6,929MW | Stage 6 | Stage 7 |
| Fri, 14 July | 6,416 MW | Stage 6 | Stage 7 |
| Sat, 15 July | 6,293 MW | Stage 6 | Stage 7 |
| Sun, 16 July | 4,234 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Mon, 17 July | 4,616 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Tue, 18 July | 3,198 MW | Stage 3 | Stage 4 |
| Wed, 19 July | 4,203 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Thu, 20 July | 4,312 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
| Fri, 21 July | 5,272 MW | Stage 5 | Stage 6 |
| Sat, 22 July | 4,199 MW | Stage 4 | Stage 5 |
Comments