Gwede Mantashe’s worst nightmare coming true

While coal remains South Africa’s primary fuel source, its dominance in the country’s energy mix is waning, with renewables nipping at its heels.

This is despite Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe previously saying that coal “is going to be with us for a very long time”, and that the resource will “outlive many of us”.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) recently published a breakdown of South Africa’s energy mix, which showed that renewables are one of the fastest-growing energy sources in the country.

The agency explained that coal continues to be South Africa’s primary source of fuel, having driven 83% of local electricity generation in 2024.

Aside from coal, South Africa also uses other non-renewable sources, such as nuclear and diesel, though they constitute a far smaller portion of the country’s energy mix.

Renewable energy, consisting of hydro, wind, and solar power, accounted for 9% of South Africa’s local production, with wind power constituting the largest share.

In fact, Stats SA pointed out that wind power supplied over half of the electricity generated by renewable sources in 2024, making it the most prominent form of green energy in South Africa.

This also makes wind power the fastest-growing source of renewable energy over a three-year period, having increased generation from 6,512 GWh in 2021 to 10,450 GWh in 2024. 

This represents annual growth of 17.1%, though Stats SA noted that wind was only outpaced by diesel, which grew by 34.5% per annum over the same period.

This significant growth in diesel use was at least partially due to Eskom’s reliance on its diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines to keep the lights on during periods of intense load shedding.

Stats SA explained that, while coal is overwhelmingly dominant in South Africa’s energy mix, its influence has slowly waned. 

Coal was responsible for supplying 90% of South Africa’s electricity in 2016, and this has since declined to 87% in 2021 and even further down to 83% in 2024. 

Stats SA said renewable sources have slowly expanded their foothold over the same period, rising from just 2% of generated electricity in 2016 to 6% in 2021 and 9% in 2024.

The graphic below, courtesy of Stats SA, shows South Africa’s energy mix in 2024.

Eskom’s power stations set to shut down

Coal’s dominance in South Africa’s energy mix is set to decline even further in the coming years, with Eskom planning to decommission many of its ageing coal-fired power plants over the next decade and a half.

Under the Integrated Resource Plan of 2025, Eskom plans to decommission 8 GW of base-load coal-fired plants by 2030.

The plan is to replace this capacity with primarily cleaner technologies, with repowering initiatives already underway at Eskom’s Arnot, Camden, Grootvlei and Hendrina plants.

The Transmission Development Plan envisages a decline in the coal fleet from 42 GW in 2024 to 28 GW in 2034.

In addition, the ramping down of coal in Mpumalanga is envisaged to be replaced by wind and solar plants from the broader Cape regions. 

These plans stand in contrast to previous statements made by Mantashe, who told Bloomberg in 2024 that expecting a rapid transition from South Africa’s dependence on coal-fired power generation to clean energy would be “very wrong”.

“This belief that you can leave coal and move to renewables: there’s a technical mistake, very wrong, it will never work,” Mantashe said.

“Coal is going to be around for a long time, for a longer time than many people expect it will be.”

A year prior, Mantashe made similar comments, slating the drive of developed economies to move South Africa away from coal in favour of renewable energy.

“It is not our resolution. It is a resolution of developed economies that we must not touch coal. There are agents here telling us that. We must resist it with everything we have,” Mantashe said.

“Coal is going to be with us for a very long time. So, those who see it as corruption or other bad things will be disappointed. Coal is going to outlive many of us.”

As recently as February 2026, Mantashe told delegates at the Southern African Coal Conference that coal remains indispensable for securing reliable baseload energy worldwide.

“Our studies confirm that coal will remain integral to South Africa’s economy as the primary source of energy generation for many years to come,” he said.

“At the same time, the sector faces growing pressure from environmental groupings and global decarbonisation trends, with some predicting the imminent demise of coal.”

“Reality, however, tells a different story. The International Energy Agency’s 2025 Global Energy Review indicates that global coal demand grew by 1.2% in 2024, demonstrating clearly that coal remains relevant.”