End of an era coming for Swiss banking, and South Africa’s oldest food producer under siege

The rand ended the week trading at R16.48 to the US dollar, after holding its own despite rising volatility and growing risk-off sentiment from investors. 

Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said that the rand’s resilience has shielded South Africa from the worst of external shocks. 

The rand has held its ground despite factors that would historically have seen it weaken significantly. 

In particular, in an environment with rising global inflation, emerging market currencies typically weaken as investors flock to safe havens in the United States and Europe. 

As inflation rises, central banks in developed economies will hike interest rates, making assets in those countries more attractive as their yields improve. 

This results in investors taking money out of emerging markets, such as South Africa, and moving to dollar- or euro-based assets. 

Global inflation is now expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026, before falling to 4.1% in 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest research. 

This marks an important shift from the broad disinflation narrative that characterised earlier publications. 

In October 2025, for example, the IMF expected global inflation to continue declining, albeit unevenly across economies. The latest outlook instead points to a near-term inflation setback. 

Importantly, the modest improvement in the growth forecast does not signal a corresponding reduction in global risks. 

The IMF continues to judge risks as tilted to the downside, warning that the margins of adjustment that previously helped economies absorb shocks are narrowing.

A further escalation of geopolitical conflict could keep energy and food prices elevated, simultaneously weakening growth and raising inflation. 

The central message is therefore not that the global outlook has strengthened materially, but that the economy has continued to absorb substantial shocks. 

With the buffers supporting that resilience narrowing, its capacity to withstand the next shock may be more limited.

Important finance and investment news

End of an era for Swiss banking: Executives at UBS, Switzerland’s last remaining flagship global bank, are preparing for a once unimaginable move – ditching its Swiss home base amid tougher capital requirements. [Wall Street Journal]

SARS scraps airport traveller management system: SARS has terminated its project at OR Tambo International Airport to manage the movement of goods in and out of South Africa. [BusinessDay]

Anthropic’s valuation cut by $500 billion: Anthropic investors are considering slashing the company’s valuation by $500bn after its latest accounts revealed slowing growth. This would take the company’s pre-IPO valuation down to $1.5 trillion from $2 trillion. [Reuters]

United States deficit hits $1.992 trillion: The US federal budget deficit for 2026 officially came in at $1.992 trillion, another reminder of Washington’s spiralling reliance on debt. This equates to 6% of US GDP. [Yahoo Finance] 

Premier Foods in hot water: COSATU wants Premier Foods back at the negotiating table in a bid to save thousands of jobs at its Tulbagh fruit canning factory. This follows the Competition Commission’s application to revoke the Competition Tribunal’s conditional approval of the company’s merger with RFG. [EWN]