South African government failing spectacularly to meet its R120,000 per person target

The South African government adopted the National Development Plan (NDP) in 2012, setting a GDP per capita target of R120,000 per person. It is failing spectacularly to meet this target.

The National Development Plan made headlines again as it closely resembles the National Dialogue announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa on 10 June 2025.

Ramaphosa said the National Dialogue is a people-led, society-wide process to reflect on the state of the country and to reimagine its future.

“The National Dialogue is a chance for all South Africans, from all walks of life, to come together and help shape the next chapter of our democracy,” he said.

However, many critics highlighted that the country’s problems and solutions are well known to all South Africans. The problem is poor execution.

Political analyst Professor Lesiba Teffo said most of the topics discussed at the National Convention are already contained in the National Development Plan 2030.

The National Development Plan was adopted in 2012 under the National Planning Commission (NPC), chaired by former Finance Minister Trevor Manuel.

Manuel said the National Development Plan was the product of thousands of inputs and perspectives of South Africans.

“We received comments from individuals and organisations and engaged with government departments, provinces, municipalities, state-owned enterprises and agencies,” he said.

“They spoke about the ravages of crime on their lives and their communities. They expressed concern that good policies are poorly implemented and therefore fail.”

These consultations and feedback were used to develop the NDP, which set overarching objectives and key targets for various sectors.

“It is a plan for a better future in which no person lives in poverty, where no one goes hungry, where there is work for all,” he said.

There was a strong focus on economics and employment, as these are the primary ways to address poverty and related social problems.

Considering the NDP 2030’s similarities to the National Dialogue, it is clear why critics like Teffo argued that the National Dialogue is unnecessary.

National Development Plan’s 2030 GDP per capita target

The National Development Plan 2030 stated that South Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita should increase from R50,000 per person in 2010 to R120,000 per person in 2030.

GDP per capita, or gross domestic product per person, measures a country’s economic output per person. It is calculated by dividing the total GDP by the population.

GDP per capita is a standard metric for assessing a nation’s economic prosperity and living standards.

To achieve this target, South Africa’s GDP should increase by 2.7 times in real terms, requiring average annual GDP growth of 5.4% over two decades.

The NDP suggested many actions to achieve this growth, including reducing the cost of doing business and removing the most pressing constraints on growth.

It promoted positioning South Africa to attract offshore business services and adopt a more open immigration approach to expand the supply of high-level skills.

It also suggested simplifying dismissal procedures for non-performance or misconduct, especially for smaller firms.

Very few of the suggestions were executed. Instead, South Africa doubled down on business-unfriendly policies like BEE and Affirmative Action (AA), which chased investors away.

Infrastructure collapse, high taxes, failing municipalities, and policies like the NHI and Expropriation without Compensation continue to harm the economy.

The results were predictable. Economic growth ground to a halt, unemployment increased, and poverty rose.

Instead of moving towards its target of a 140% increase in GDP per capita, it moved away from this target.

South Africa’s real GDP per capita decreased over the last fifteen years as economic growth failed to keep pace with population growth.

The government stated that it wanted to increase the country’s real GDP per capita from R50,000 to R120,000 in real terms.

From 2010 to 2013, the real GDP per capita saw some growth, increasing to R51,589. However, since then, it has seen a steady deterioration.

South Africa only managed to generate a real GDP per capita of R47,827 in 2024. This was 4% worse than in 2010.

If the government was on track to meet its target, the real GDP per capita in 2024 should have been R95,307.

The government failed miserably in meeting its targets, and South Africans are worse off today than in 2010.

The chart below shows the National Development Plan’s GDP per capita target versus actual outcome.