Gauteng social unrest warning as Day Zero looms

Gauteng is increasingly at risk of reaching ‘Day Zero’ when the province’s taps will run dry due to infrastructure mismanagement and institutional failure. This, in turn, threatens social unrest.

Over the past few years, sporadic water shortages have hit South Africa’s economic hub as its infrastructure cannot get water to the end user. 

The issue is not that the province does not have enough water. In contrast, its dams are relatively full. The problem is getting the water from the dams to the end user. 

Due to leaks, nearly 50% of all water pumped from the bulk supplier, Rand Water, is lost before it reaches the end user. 

“If we manage our water wisely, we certainly have enough to grow our economy and population. The problem is that we are not managing it wisely,” water scientist Dr Anthony Turton said. 

“It is not a water scarcity issue. It is an institutional failure issue.” 

On Saturday, Rand Water issued a stark warning to Gauteng citizens, saying that water storage levels have significantly declined due to excessive municipal water withdrawals. 

“Rand Water has repeatedly warned municipalities in Gauteng about the potential crisis,” the water board said in a statement. 

“Unfortunately, the crisis we sought to prevent has now materialised. The water supply systems in Gauteng, including Rand Water reservoirs, are critically low, and the situation is anticipated to worsen.” 

“Rand Water would like to alert communities, particularly in Gauteng, that water storage could soon be depleted if municipalities do not implement our recommendations. It is essential to act now to prevent the impending disaster.” 

The water board said it is operating at capacity and cannot pump additional water into the system. 

Water Ledger’s Benoit Le Roy explained that things are only likely to get worse as Rand Water will have to cut its delivery of water to Gauteng metros by 10% in the coming months to avoid breaching its legal limit. 

This means that water shortages will likely persist in Gauteng for the foreseeable future, and Joburg’s major reservoirs are unlikely to reach the level needed for summer. 

The only immediate solution is for Rand Water and municipalities to implement water-shedding to artificially reduce demand. 

Water-shedding works very similarly to load-shedding, with water supply being cut off to particular areas on a rotating basis. 

“The solution is not a quick one, unfortunately, apart from water-shedding. This can be planned or unplanned,” Le Roy explained.  

Water infrastructure has deteriorated to the point where reservoirs closer to the end user cannot be sufficiently filled by the country’s dams, resulting in them running out of water. 

Le Roy warned that this could have disastrous consequences as shutting off reservoirs can create air pockets in downstream infrastructure. These pockets can either block the flow of water or burst pipes, exacerbating the problem. 

“Water-shedding cannot work – planned or unplanned – as water systems are designed to be wet and are not designed to be turned on and off,” he said. 

Apart from damage to infrastructure, water-shedding will significantly impact economic activity in Gauteng. 

“In the case of Gauteng, it is a very specific issue because three major metros contain a significant portion of our national manufacturing capacity. They are all at risk from water supply disruptions,” Turton said. 

“Of course, when water supply is disrupted, businesses cannot operate. It means that there will also be an impact on the workforce,” he said. 

“You must appreciate that water is the foundation of your national economy. It is the foundation of social stability.”

“Once your water infrastructure starts collapsing, you start to see things like social instability, the flight of capital out of the country, businesses collapsing, and the loss of jobs.” 

“This is a national crisis. It is an existential threat to the very viability of our national economy.”