South Africa kissing billions goodbye
South Africa’s tourism industry has bounced back from the pandemic-era lows, but its performance remains well below the heights seen in 2019 – resulting in billions in lost economic activity.
This also comes at a time when global tourism is booming and foreigners from Europe and the US increasingly look to Africa as an affordable destination.
Director at BDO South Africa, Lee-Anne Bac, said the country is missing out on a significant opportunity to boost its economy.
From January to May 2024, 3.8 million tourists visited South Africa – nearly 10% higher than the same period a year ago.
This is a sign of a remarkable comeback since the Covid-19 pandemic when tourism was effectively shut down.
However, this number is still 561,000 less than the number of tourists who visited the country in the first five months of 2019.
With the sector not progressing according to plan, it is at risk of not achieving a full rebound by the end of 2024, Bac said.
Overseas tourism is the crown jewel when it comes to economic impact due to the high average spend per visitor, and is an easy way to earn foreign currency.
In South Africa, the number of tourists visiting the country is lagging significantly behind 2018 and 2019 numbers.
With 930,000 overseas arrivals between January and May 2024, the lag behind 2019 overseas arrivals for the same period is at 15% and 17% behind 2018 numbers.
Compared to 2023, when YTD growth over 2022 overseas numbers was 80%, growth for the first five months of 2024 compared to 2023 has been disappointing at only 8%, Bac said.
The growth should be at least 30% or more if we are to reach 2019 numbers by the end of 2024.
This means South Africa has failed to regain 194,000 overseas tourists resulting in a loss to date of R4.8 billion in direct revenue, excluding the multiplier effect of this direct spend in the economy.

Positive signs
Bac said there are reasons to be positive despite the subdued growth in tourism in South Africa.
Chief amongst these is the growth in travellers from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, indicating the country is finally gaining interest from some of the world’s largest economies.
When it comes to African tourism, while we are seeing an improvement numbers are still lagging 12% behind 2019 and 13% behind 2018 arrivals for the first 5 months of the year, Bac said.
This alone resulted in a loss of R3 billion in direct revenue. However, compared to 2023, growth for the first 5 months of 2024 has been 10%.
On a positive note, the number of tourists from Ghana has rebounded strongly following the mutual removal of visa requirements late last year.
Since then, arrivals from the fast-growing West African nation have far exceeded 2019 numbers (up 71% year-to-date).
Kenya is another good news story – arrivals year-to-date are 45% above 2019 figures (and in 2023 arrivals were 34% more than 2019).
The largest beneficiaries from this growth have been five-star hotels, with occupancy rates back at 2019 levels far sooner than their less luxurious counterparts.
Furthermore, average room rates are up 21% in real terms compared to the same period in 2019.
For the first five months of 2024, South African four-star hotels have shown improved performance, achieving an average occupancy that is only one per cent below the same period in 2019 but achieving real growth in the average room rate of 7% over 2019.
Unfortunately, three-star hotels have been left behind, with average occupancy tracking two percent behind the first five months of 2019 and a real decline in the average room rate of -2%.
Certain markets have rebounded well, but on the whole South Africa’s tourism industry is lagging, Bac said.
For example, the Russian market has seen a 73% increase in the number of visitors received compared to the same period in 2019, and the number of visitors from the Netherlands has already recovered beyond 2019 levels.
Obtaining visas with as little bureaucratic red tape as possible is crucial, with significant benefits for African travellers.
“The largest elephant in the room is the need to tackle crime, grime and decay in our cities across the country. Local government must take a firm stand and be accountable for cleaning up public spaces to ensure they are not only safe but also appealing for tourists to visit,” Bac said.
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