South Africa

2024 South African National Election results odds

Sunbet has released its 2024 South African National Election results odds, which places ANC support between 40% and 45%, with Cyril Ramaphosa the firm favourite to remain president.

Sunbet is a division of Sun International and has made betting on the South African election possible for the first time.

“Globally, election betting is extremely popular around the world, so we knew that South Africans would be keen to place a bet on their own elections,” Sunbet said.

Sunbet COO Gideon Mann said there is a level of science behind measuring the sentiment of the voting public.

In South Africa, several companies poll the elections. These companies include the Social Research Foundation, Ipsos, Mark Data, and The Economist.

However, Mass said the methodology and number of polls are not at the same level as the United States. It means the accuracy is not comparable.

“We believe betting outcomes tend to give a more accurate picture of potential outcomes than election polls,” he said.

The odds show that the ANC is expected to receive between 40% and 45% of the vote. The DA is expected to get between 20% and 22.5%, and the EFF between 11% and 13%.

Sunbet’s odds show that Cyril Ramaphosa is the favourite to become president following the election, with John Steenhuisen second and Paul Mashatile third.

Paul Mashatile is the top pick for vice president, followed by John Steenhuisen, Julius Malema, and Hermann Mashaba.

The odds for the new MK party show that there is no clarity on how much of the vote it is expected to get.

The ANC and DA are neck and neck in Gauteng, while the ANC is expected to get the most votes in KwaZulu-Natal.

The chart below provides an overview of the odds for the 2024 South African National Election results.

To make it easy to understand, Daily Investor used inverse values. This means a bigger bar chart shows the higher likelihood of an outcome.

2024 National Elections Predictions

The 2024 South African national election results will start to trickle in after the voting stations close at 21:00 on 29 May 2024.

South Africans can track the results via the IEC’s live elections results dashboard or many news publications with election dashboards.

However, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) will offer a sneak peek long before the official results are released.

The CSIR has built an election night prediction model for the 2024 national and provincial elections. It was first introduced by the CSIR during the 1999 general elections.

During the last ten South African elections, the CSIR employed a statistical model to predict the election outcomes.

The CSIR’s election prediction model relies on two principles – the analysis of voter behaviour patterns and the sequence in which voting results are announced on election day.

“Combined, these two principles enable the team to group voters or districts based on their past voting behaviour, utilising a statistical clustering method,” it said.

When applied in previous elections, the model typically achieved a high degree of accuracy at a national level once approximately 5% of the results had been tallied.

The predictions become more stable and accurate as more voting districts are counted, ultimately converging to the final results once all voting districts have been declared.

CSIR CEO Thulani Dlamini said their election prediction model is not a polling system, but a model that uses statistical and mathematical analysis to predict election outcomes.

“It showcases how statistical clustering and mathematical algorithms can achieve good predictions from a small sample of results,” he said.


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