South Africa

ANC to lose majority next year, survey shows

Support for South Africa’s ruling African National Congress has slipped while the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, is growing in popularity, according to a survey. 

The ANC would likely garner 45% of the vote and the opposition Democratic Alliance 31% in a national election, according to a Social Research Foundation Survey of 1,412 registered voters carried out this month.

That compares with 52% and 24%, respectively, in a March survey.

The ANC is expected to face its sternest test since winning power in 1994 when it faces elections around April or May next year.

Years of corruption scandals and a year in which power cuts hit their worst level ever have eroded its support. 

Should the ANC, which won 57% of the vote in 2019, lose its overall majority for the first time, that could result in South Africa’s first experience of a coalition government at a national level.

That is causing some concern among investors as the fractious coalitions that already rule some of the country’s biggest cities have caused a decline in the delivery of services such as water and electricity distribution.

The survey, which had a 5% margin of error, assumed a voter turnout of 66%, similar to 2019. It forecast that the Economic Freedom Fighters, the third-biggest opposition party, would get 9% while the Inkatha Freedom Party would get 6%.


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