Election results 2026: Scientific prediction sees DA and ActionSA crushing the ANC

South Africa • 5 November 2026 • Staff Writer

The ANC appears to have haemorrhaged support in Wednesday’s municipal elections, modelling based on the early results shows.

The ANC is on track to win about 31.7% of the national vote, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research said in a post on X.

Its forecasts have proved accurate in previous elections.

The state institute also sees the Democratic Alliance garnering 25.7% backing, with former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, garnering 9%, the Economic Freedom Fighters garnering 6.1%, and ActionSA garnering 5.1%.

The overarching national projections won’t reflect who is likely to control the major towns, with support for several parties concentrated in specific areas.

For example, the port city of Durban in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, where Zuma’s MKP could make inroads.

In the last municipal elections in 2021, the ANC won 45.6% of the vote, the DA 21.7%, and the EFF 10.3%. The MKP was only formed in 2023.

A series of opinion polls conducted before the election predicted the ANC’s decline, in a backlash against failing services in many municipalities.

The party ruled the country outright for three decades after apartheid ended in 1994, but lost its national majority in 2024, when it won just over 40% of the vote.

It then entered into a coalition with the DA and eight smaller rivals to form a so-called government of national unity.

Investors will be watching for any surge in backing for populist opposition parties and what that could mean for the stability of the ruling alliance, which has prioritised economic growth and job creation.

The electoral commission is expected to release the outcome of the local government vote and the allocation of seats on the 257 municipal councils over the weekend.

With 25% of the vote counted, the ANC had 32% support, the DA 28.9%, MKP 5.9%, the EFF 5.4%, the PA 4.2%, FF Plus 4.1%, ActionSA at 3% and the Inkatha Freedom Party 2.7%, official tallies show.

Early results aren’t always a reliable gauge of party support, because votes from urban areas where the DA gets most of its support are tallied first.