South Africa heading for an unknown future that could create a very difficult situation

Former Statistician-General of South Africa Professor Pali Lehohla said South Africa is heading into an unknown future that could create a very difficult situation.

Lehohla currently serves as a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg and a Research Associate at Oxford University.

He advises the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and has expertise in the political economy of data systems.

Lehohla told SABC News that voting trends in South Africa over the past 32 years have shaped service delivery outcomes.

He said that many people, particularly in rural and poor urban areas, have lost faith in the democratic process because it has failed to deliver changes in their lives.

There is a direct correlation between high unemployment and areas in South Africa where democracy is collapsing.

As unemployment increases and people lose faith in the democratic process, they stop voting and participating in elections.

Voter turnout peaked in 1999 at 89.3%, but has steadily declined since then. In 2024, it hit an all-time low of 58.64%.

The rapid decline in voter turnout and election apathy aligns with the increase in South Africa’s unemployment rate.

Lehohla said democracy has already collapsed in many parts of South Africa, which creates a serious challenge.

He went so far as to warn that South Africa’s trajectory could lead to the total collapse of the state if the current paradigm shift continues unchecked.

“We are heading for an unknown future that could create a very difficult situation for South Africa,” he said.

South Africa is experiencing a decline in voter turnout

South Africa has experienced a steady decline in voter turnout since 1994, despite a growing population and rising voter registration figures.

The number of registered voters has increased over the years. However, the proportion of eligible South Africans who actually cast their ballots has dropped sharply.

The most significant gap is not between those who register and those who vote, but between the country’s Voting Age Population (VAP).

The VAP shows everyone legally eligible to vote, and the number of votes ultimately recorded.

Data from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance shows that voter participation peaked in 1994 at 85.5%.

Turnout then steadily declined over successive elections, falling below 50% in 2019 and reaching a record low of 39.6% in 2024.

Between 1999 and 2024, South Africa’s VAP grew by about 76%, rising from 22.6 million to 39.8 million.

Yet the number of ballots cast increased by only 63,054 over the same period. In 1999, 16,228,462 votes were recorded, compared to 16,291,516 in 2024.

A pre-election survey conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council sheds light on this phenomenon, especially among young people.

The most common reason young people cited for not voting was dissatisfaction with government performance.

They were particularly disappointed with the government’s performance in tackling poverty, unemployment, and corruption.

The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa said South Africa does not face a crisis of democracy itself.

However, South Africa does face a crisis of democratic governance driven by political instability, which is concerning.

It argued that politics in the country has become defined by abnormal competition for power at any cost. This situation results in shifting political alliances, weak ideological grounding, and increasing factionalism.