South Africa has 1 police officer for every 400 people

A recent parliamentary response revealed that South Africa has only one police officer for every 412 residents on a national level.

This comes as the performance of South Africa’s police force has deteriorated significantly over the past decade, with kidnappings surging and murder detection rates declining.

If South African wants to sustainably drive faster economic growth and improve citizens’ lives, the rule of law and good governance must be restored.

In response to a recent parliamentary question from DA MP Lisa-Maré Schickerling, Acting Minister of Police Firoz Cachalia stated that South Africa’s police officer-to-resident national ratio is 1:412.

He noted that this ratio is lower in South Africa’s higher crime areas, which are prioritised on an annual level based on reported levels of contact crime.

As at 31 March 2024, South Africa had 1,160 functional police stations, where 1,157 police stations were identified for the implementation of Community Police Forums (CPFs) and 1,156 had functional CPFs.

This comes as South Africa’s crime levels continue to climb year after year, with suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu describing them as intolerable.

In SAPS’ 2023/24 annual report, Mchunu noted that the country’s crime levels “are on the increase and are intolerable”. 

He explained that the leading crimes are contact crimes, such as murders and rape, as well as hijackings and kidnappings for ransom payments.

He added that the killing of women and children also continues to be of serious concern and requires concentrated action from the SAPS.

SAPS’s 2023/24 annual report showed that its murder detection rate decreased from 12.48% in 2022/23 to 11.33%. This means that for every 100 murders in South Africa, only 11 are solved.

This represents a notable decline from 2011/12, when the detection rate stood at 31.1% of murders in South Africa.

Mchunu specifically highlighted four provinces that contribute to unacceptably high levels of crime in South Africa, namely the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.

The table below shows SAPS’s detection and conviction rates for some serious crimes in its 2023/24 financial year.

Crime category	Complaints reported	Detection rate	Conviction rate
Murder	27,590	11.33%	80.61%
Attempted murder	28,432	33.59%	82.07%
Robbery with aggravating circumstances	150,366	15.62%	83.23%
Common robbery	49,089	25.44%	85.36%
Assault Grievous Bodily Harm	179,657	72.43%	83.88%
Assault common	190,553	68.20%	83.63%
Sexual offences	53,773	60.55%	75.36%
Total	679,460	45.89%	82.03%

Restoring law and order

Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings previously highlighted South Africa’s inability to tackle crime and corruption successfully as one of the main factors hampering the country’s growth.

“In 2011, we caught 31% of all murderers. That is pathetic, but still far better than today, where the police only solve 12.4% of murders,” Lings said, referring to SAPS’s 2022/23 detection rate. 

“I am thinking that when we get the next update, that number is going to be 10%. A 10% murder detection rate means that you have a 90% chance of getting away with murder.”

Standard Bank chief economist Goolam Ballim has also previously explained that the rule of law and good governance are vital for faster economic growth in South Africa.

“It may sound a little academic, but it is something that I support quite vigorously, and that is the rule of law or good governance. I treat those two as synonyms,” Ballim said. 

“By the rule of law, I am referring to the overall governance climate within a country that is vital to attract investment locally and abroad.”

Ballim said South Africa’s surge in crime over the past few years is directly linked to the declining capacity and performance of SAPS.

Ballim explained that this effect is not only felt in terms of personal safety, but it has significant implications for the South African economy. 

A decline in personal safety inhibits the ability of businesses to plan ahead to save and invest in long-term projects that drive economic growth. 

Deterioration in police performance also comes with declining trust in the rule of law, as it is not enforced effectively. 

Ballim explained that there is a clear link between economic growth and the quality of public institutions, particularly the rule of law.

Standard Bank’s research has shown that about three-quarters of all investment and economic growth hinges on the rule of law and good governance.

However, Ballim said restoring law and order is often easier said than done, particularly in South Africa when sometimes the very people meant to enforce it are responsible for its degradation.

“It is easy to say and sometimes it has even been done, but sometimes the very politicians responsible for the rule of law are also the ones who seek to preserve their patronage networks and so forth,” Ballim said. 

“This has been a crime on society for a long time, and it is one of the things that we should continue to talk about as policy advisors and as citizens.”

For example, Mchunu is currently suspended from his position as Police Minister following serious allegations of corruption and political interference that are currently under investigation.