Police crisis puts South Africa on the edge of serious trouble

South Africa’s suspended police minister, once touted as a potential presidential contender, is fighting for political survival.

Senzo Mchunu was suspended in July after a senior police officer claimed he sabotaged an investigation into political assassinations, an allegation now being investigated by a judicial panel and a parliamentary committee.

Mchunu appeared before lawmakers in Cape Town on Thursday to tell his side of the story in person for the first time since being sidelined by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

He denied any wrongdoing and insisted he followed proper procedure in disbanding a task team that was set up to probe the killings and was never intended to be a permanent structure.  

Local media outlets had suggested Mchunu could succeed his close ally Ramaphosa as leader of the African National Congress in 2027 and potentially as president in 2029.

While he wasn’t widely considered a frontrunner for those posts, he was probably the party’s best hope of drawing support from his crucial home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where he previously served as premier. 

If the accusations hold “it would put him out of contention as any kind of presidential contender,” said Daniel Silke, the director of the Cape Town-based Political Futures Consultancy. 

Mchunu’s woes spell further trouble for the ANC, which failed to win a parliamentary majority in last year for the first time since it took power in the first multiracial elections in 1994. 

Those in line to take charge of the party once Ramaphosa leaves include Deputy President Paul Mashatile, and ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula, who have been embroiled in scandals of their own. They both deny wrongdoing and haven’t been prosecuted. 

“Neither of those two candidates could restore the fortunes of the liberation party and could contribute to its further electoral decline,” Silke said. “The ANC is in a real bind from a leadership perspective.”

The allegations against Mchunu were first aired by Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, KwaZulu-Natal’s police commissioner, in a televised briefing on July 6.

He said the minister ordered dockets with information on political killings to be seized and the disbandment of the investigating team, effectively freezing the probes. 

In subsequent testimony to the judicial panel and parliament, Mkhwanazi reiterated his accusations and tied Mchunu to receiving campaign funding from a man awaiting trial on attempted murder and money laundering charges. Mchunu has also rejected those claims. 

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Marga van Rooyen, the head of the police’s legal services unit, meanwhile told the judicial commission headed by retired Constitutional Court Judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga that Mchunu acted beyond his powers when he ordered the immediate dissolution of the political killings task team.

And Fannie Masemola, the deputy police commissioner, told lawmakers he also didn’t agree with Mchunu’s instructions.

The testimony and ensuing police raids on the homes of senior law-enforcement officials have dominated national news coverage for weeks. 

“This has cast a pall over the entire security apparatus,” and highlights “the deep rot within the police,” Silke said. 

Ineffective policing is a major issue in South Africa. The country has one of the world’s highest rates of homicide, with only one in 10 cases solved, and political killings have surged since 2016.

The World Bank estimates the country loses a 10th of its economic output to crime. 

Prior to his suspension, Mchunu was a rising star in the ANC. He was instrumental in driving a 2017 campaign that saw Ramaphosa win control of the party and later the country.

Ramaphosa rewarded him with the ministerial portfolios of public service and administration and later water and sanitation, where he was credited with beginning to turn around South Africa’s chaotic water department. He took on the policing post after last year’s election.

“Keeping Mchunu is critical for the ANC, as their biggest single voting block is in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal,” said Melanie Verwoerd, an independent political analyst and former lawmaker. 

Even so, Mchunu now appears to be more of a liability than an asset to the president. 

The Democratic Alliance, which joined the ANC-led ruling coalition despite being its biggest political rival, has laid criminal charges against the minister. The uMkhonto weSizwe Party, the main opposition, has called for his arrest. 

“These allegations strike at the heart of South Africa’s criminal justice system, implicating senior law enforcement, prosecutorial, intelligence, and even executive officials in organized crime and systemic corruption,” said DA leader John Steenhuisen.