Goodbye Cape Town – semigration shift hits South Africa

Although the Western Cape has dominated South Africa’s property market for several years with masses of ‘semigrants’ leaving Gauteng behind, this trend may finally be reversing as people increasingly start to consider returning to Johannesburg.

Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty in Johannesburg and Randburg CEO Cobus Odendaal explained that the semigration trend, which has put a damper on Gauteng’s property market, appears to be changing.

He explained that even though the Cape has been the preferred destination for those seeking a lifestyle change and perceived better governance, Johannesburg property professionals have noted a recent shift in sentiment.

In particular, he noted that this change is due to factors like Cape Town’s soaring property prices and high cost of living.

“In recent months, we’ve started fielding a growing number of enquiries from people looking to move back to Johannesburg, with particular interest in properties at the higher end of the market,” he said.

While the Western Cape has a lot to offer, especially in terms of lifestyle and scenic beauty, many who made the move are finding it challenging to sustain the higher costs associated with living in the province.

This is especially true amid ongoing economic pressures such as inflation and high interest rates.

“Furthermore, Cape Town’s infrastructure struggles, including water shortages and traffic congestion, have diminished the city’s appeal for many as those are some of the key reasons that they left Johannesburg in the first place,” he said.

Lightstone data shows that property prices in Cape Town have risen by 25% in the past five years, compared to Johannesburg’s more moderate 12% increase.

PayProp’s 2024 Annual Market Report also highlights that Western Cape rental costs far exceed those in any other province.

“Not only are property prices in most areas still very accessible compared to the Cape, there is also a considerable amount of available stock on the market, so buyers have their choice of properties,” Odendaal said.

Semigration shifts

Odendaal attributed this emergent trend to several key factors.

“Many professionals who initially believed they could sustain Johannesburg-level salaries while working remotely from coastal or countryside locations are now facing the reality of corporate South Africa’s shift back to in-office work,” he said.

“Additionally, networking, career advancement, and high-level business opportunities remain concentrated in Johannesburg, making a return to the city essential for many of those who want to remain competitive in their industries.”

Johannesburg is still South Africa’s economic powerhouse, contributing nearly 16% of the nation’s GDP and over 40% of business services output.

Sandton, which is home to the JSE and Africa’s largest corporations, continues to be the epicentre of commerce, solidifying Johannesburg’s status as the country’s business hub.

“Unsurprisingly, Cape Town’s skyrocketing cost of living and property prices are pushing buyers to seek better value elsewhere,” Odendaal said.

“As more buyers shift their focus to Johannesburg’s relatively affordable yet high-value properties, demand is set to drive up prices, so, for investors, the time to act is now.”

Sandton’s market is already showing encouraging signs of recovery. A 2024 Lightstone report revealed that Bryanston ranked second and Morningside 10th in the Top 10 Value property band.

Steyn City also topped the list of suburbs with at least ten sales and an average price between R5 million and R10 million.

“With more professionals returning and competition for prime properties set to increase, Johannesburg’s real estate market presents a unique opportunity and buying now, before the inevitable rise in property inflation, ensures the best value and long-term gains,” Odendaal said.

“The window of opportunity is open – savvy investors should seize it before the market surges.”