South Africa’s top stock picker revealed

Nick Crail from FNB Wealth & Investments won the annual Daily Investor award for the top stock picker in South Africa.

The Daily Investor South African Stock Picker of the Year Award is based on analysing the performance of over 100 prominent fund managers and equity analysts.

Daily Investors recorded their stock picks on podcasts, the JSE’s SA Stock Picks show, and Business Day TV’s Stock Watch between January and December 2024.

We then analysed the performance of these stock picks against the performance of the associated market.

For example, when an analyst picked a share listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), we compared the performance with the JSE Top 40 Index.

If someone picked a share listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or Nasdaq, we compared the performance with the S&P 500 Index.

This methodology showed whether a stock picker outperformed the market, which is the purpose of a fund manager and analyst.

Only fund managers and equity analysts who picked at least five stocks spread in 2024 were included in the ranking.

The performance was calculated in rand (ZAR) from the date of the stock pick until January 2025. An equal-weighted average was taken regardless of the holding period.

This ranking differs from typical stock pick competitions because it rewards consistency rather than high-risk stocks.

Another difference is that it is a year-long real-world performance analysis, where analysts and fund managers risk their reputation on their performance.

They share their views on their picks on the shows they appear on, and these stocks typically form part of their own investment portfolios.

Most top names in South Africa’s investment industry were included in the analysis and the 2024 rankings.

South African Stock Picker of the Year

Nick Crail from FNB Wealth & Investments won the South African Stock Picker of the Year Award, outperforming the market by 19%.

Crail focused heavily on international stocks, including Nvidia, Visa, Amazon, and Tencent. His only local pick was Absa.

He was one of only a handful of analysts whose stock picks in 2024 all had positive returns. Most of them beat the market.

Anthony Clark from Smalltalkdaily Research, who focussed on small and mid-cap shares on the JSE, finished second. He outperformed the market by 15.3%.

Shane Watkins from All Weather Capital finished third. His picks mainly included JSE-listed shares, and he outperformed the market by 14.8%.

Other stock pickers who outperformed the market by more than 10% included Petri Redelinghuys, Thamsanqa Netha, Annatjie van Rooyen, and Mark du Toit.

Sasfin Securities’ David Shapiro had the best individual suggestion. He picked Palantir Technologies in February 2024, which returned over 200% over the year.

Wayne McCurrie from FNB Wealth & Investments also made a standout pick. In April 2024, he selected SoundHound AI, which also returned over 200% that year.

The table below shows South Africa’s top stock pickers in 2024, ranked based on market outperformance.