Chantal Marx’s top South African stock picks
Chantal Marx, the investment research head at FNB Wealth and Investments, identified her top three stock picks during a recent JSE SA Stock Picks event: an Amazon Exchange Traded Note (ETN), City Lodge, and Capital Appreciation.
She also highlighted WeBuyCars, Mr Price and Raubex as excellent stock picks with promising long-term growth prospects.
Marx was instrumental in launching FNB Securities’ in-house research platform and plays a key role in the content and research teams at FirstRand.
She holds a BSc in Mathematics and Economics, a BCom Honours in Investment Management, a CFA charter, and a Master’s degree in Finance.
Describing herself as a “boring, long-term investor”, Marx seeks companies with stable management, a large and growing market, a strong balance sheet, and solid fundamentals.
She regularly comments on market trends on platforms like Business Day TV, Newzroom Afrika, The Money Show, and SABC.
Marx loves the South African small and mid-cap space and chose two stocks in that category: City Lodge and Capital Appreciation.
Amazon, on the other hand, is a much larger American company, but the ETN gives local investors an opportunity to invest in it at an affordable price.
She added that WeBuyCars is another solid stock pick, especially for long-term investors.
“It just excites me,” she said, adding that the company could easily reach a 20% market share over the used car market in the next few years.
Similarly, Marx also highlighted Mr Price and Raubex as great investments for long-term growth.
“Both stocks don’t look particularly inexpensive at the moment,” she said.
“But again, if you’re taking a long-term view, these are high-quality companies in very interesting sectors: Raubex, in construction, and Mr Price, in discretionary retail, both with strong expected growth tailwinds, cyclically and structurally, in South Africa.”
Marx suggested that investors hold onto these shares and add more to their portfolios when the price comes down.
Below is an overview of the stocks Marx picked.
Amazon Exchange Traded Note (ETN)
First, Marx picked the Amazon Exchange Traded Note (ETN), specifically the combo version, which gives investors exposure to both Amazon and the exchange rate.
She chose the combo option because, although the rand is expected to strengthen in the short term, it’s likely to weaken in the long term.
This way, investors will benefit from a depreciating rand when holding offshore assets.
Marx explained that she’s going with the Amazon ETN rather than buying Amazon directly because Amazon’s share price in dollars is high, which makes it tough to buy without a lot of capital. The ETN lets you invest with less.
Amazon is one of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and part of the S&P 500.
It’s grown significantly, especially with the AI trend, but recently, these stocks have seen a bit of a correction. Amazon, though, is less reliant on AI, with strong cloud and eCommerce businesses, providing good diversification.
Valuation-wise, Amazon’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 27 times, which might seem high compared to JSE stocks, but it’s actually lower than its historical average.
Plus, its premium over eCommerce peers has dropped, and earnings are expected to grow between 20% and 25% over the next three years.
“The stock doesn’t look expensive, and I think that it’s just a really novel way to enter the stock via the JSE with a lower capital outlay than having to take that money directly offshore.”
City Lodge
Next, Marx picked City Lodge, South Africa’s leading selected services hotel chain, which has a market cap of R2.76 billion.
City Lodge is a really interesting company that’s transformed since the Covid-19 pandemic.
While it used to cater primarily to mid-priced business travellers, like people staying overnight before a flight, it’s now become a destination in itself.
The company has refurbished their hotels and enhanced their food and beverage offerings, making it even more appealing.
“There is still loads of growth potential in the domestic travel sector in South Africa, especially as economic growth picks up, and international travel still hasn’t actually recovered to pre-Covid levels,” Marx said.
“South Africa as a destination is absolutely fantastic, and City Lodge will continue to benefit from that.”
During Cvoid, they had to cut costs to keep the business afloat. As a result, the company is much more efficient today and has a greater operating leverage.
The stock trades at a low forward PE of six, and Marx said, “By our calculations, we have a target price of about R5.50 on it, so that gives you about 25% to 30% upside depending on where the share price is trading”.
It’s a well-managed company and a solid long-term investment, although the stock isn’t ideal for trading.
Capital Appreciation
Marx’s next stock pick was the fintech company Capital Appreciation, with a market cap of R1.99 billion.
What makes Capital Appreciation compelling is not just its payment terminals and lay-by business but the software behind those terminals, which is where the real value lies.
The company generates substantial annuity income by continuously upgrading and developing this software, giving it strong earnings visibility.
When Capital Appreciation was listed as a special purpose acquisition vehicle (SPAC) in 2015, it had no revenue. Today, it generates over R1 billion in revenue, growing at around 30% per year, a trend expected to continue over the next 3 to 5 years.
The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7, with an attractive forward dividend yield of 9.5%. Even if it takes time for the PE to re-rate, the high dividend yield offers a solid return in the meantime.
“The management team is extremely energised. They’re very positive about the growth prospects of that business. They’re very committed to those specific businesses, and they are also very excited about the opportunities that are available to them in the South African market.”
“So those are three ticks in my box as well,” Marx said.
WeBuyCars
Marx explained that WeBuyCars, which has a market cap of R12.81 billion, is a really exciting stock.
WeBuyCars operates in the used car market, which is less cyclical than the new car market. For over 15 years, the used vehicle sector has outpaced the growth of new vehicles.
It’s a fragmented space with many dealers, but WeBuyCars has the largest market share, around 12%, and plans to push this to over 20% in the coming years, which Marx said they could easily achieve.
Given the company’s performance and growth plans, especially with a view toward 2030, it has a substantial growth runway.
“I think it’s a great stock,” she said. However, it isn’t cheap at the moment.
“But if you take a very long-term view, and it’s something that you’re willing to hold for a very long time and not watch closely every day – I don’t see anything wrong with even buying it at these levels.”
As the South African economy starts to pick up, it is also likely that people who couldn’t previously afford cars will be pushed into the used car bracket, further adding to the company’s growth prospects.
Mr Price
Marx also highlighted the retailer Mr Price, which was established in 1985 under the Special Stores Group.
Following an unbundling in 2000, Mr Price’s shares started trading on the JSE and now the company has a market cap of R60.62 billion.
The Mr Price Group consists of Mr Price, Mr Price Home, Mr Price Sport, Mr Price Money, Miladys, Sheet Street, Power Fashion, Yuppiechef and Studio88.
The group has faced pressure from high interest rates and inflation, with consumers having less disposable income.
However, this year, the company benefitted from the excitement around GNU and the South African economy picking up.
While the company isn’t necessarily inexpensive at the moment, taking a long term, Marx said this is a quality investment which is set to keep growing.
Raubex
Finally, Marx pointed out that Raubex, which has a market cap of R9.26 billion, is another great stock pick.
The infrastructure development and construction materials supply company was established in 1974 and listed on the JSE in 2007.
The company operates throughout southern Africa and Western Australia and currently has a market cap of R4.97 billion.
Raubex not only builds roads but also sells the materials that other companies use to build roads, placing it in a good position to benefit from the government’s infrastructure spending.
While it may not be a cheap stock currently, it is another solid company with a good management team, which should offer great value for investors over the long term.
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