Three mid-cap JSE shares Anthony Clark likes
Small Talk Daily Research’s Anthony Clark sees tremendous upside in Afrimat, Invicta, and PPC Cement as these companies have reduced their debt burdens and, in some cases, started to expand their operations.
Clark, who specialises in small- to mid-cap industrial, agricultural and food stocks, outlined his reasons for selecting these three stocks on BusinessDay TV.
He was recently rated as the best analyst by the Financial Mail for financial and industrial small and medium market cap companies.
Clark has been an investor and analyst for over three decades, with the last five years as an independent analyst.
Since arriving from the UK in 1996, he’s worked for Standard Bank Equities, Genbel Securities, Nedbank Securities, Barnard Jacobs Mellet, and also spent some time at BEE investment business Vunani Securities.
For the past five years, he’s been independent as the head of Small Talk Daily Research and has consistently been rated in the top five small- and mid-cap analysts by the Financial Mail since 2009.
Clark selected Afrimat, Invicta, and PPC as they are trading at cheap valuations and offer substantial upside. He is extremely cautious about investing in PPC, however.
Afrimat
Afrimat began as a construction material supplier and was initially listed on the JSE as a construction company.
Its sound management team ensured its survival in the post-2010 world cup decline in construction activity in South Africa.
The company used its strong balance sheet to diversify away from construction and into bulk commodities, particularly iron and coal. This improved its revenue mix and forced it to reclassify as a mining company on the JSE.
In June, Afrimat spent R800 million to acquire cement manufacturer Lafarge South Africa from its Swiss owners.
Afrimat will have to turn around Lafarge as its profits declined sharply in 2022. However, if it manages the turnaround well, then Clark believes it got Lafarge for a bargain as the business can generate over R300 million in profits as it did before 2022.
Lafarge will also increase the footprint of Afrimat’s construction businesses, create natural efficiencies, and give Afrimat a profitable fly ash business.
Afrimat estimates it will take 18 months to turn Lafarge South Africa around.
Clark has a target value of R80 for Afrimat, which is currently trading at R58.
Invicta Holdings
Invicta Holdings is an investment company majority-owned by Christo Wiese and has seen a remarkable recovery in the last few years.
Its headline earnings per share for the financial year to end March 2023 rose 41% to R4.64 and is declared a R1 per share dividend.
Despite the company being successfully turned around, Clark said the market has not correctly valued the company as yet.
The company has recently gone on an acquisition spree, using its strong balance sheet to purchase companies in the United Kingdom and East Asia.
This will improve the company’s foreign exchange earnings and reduce its reliance on the South African economy.
A weakening rand will benefit Invicta as its earnings will be inflated in rand terms from its earnings in stronger currencies.
Clark also said it is good that the company has a majority shareholder such as Christo Wiese, who owns nearly 40% of the company, as this protects it from potential takeovers.
His target share price for Invicta is R38. The company currently trades at R27 with a net asset value of R45.49.
PPC Cement
PPC Cement has had a relatively poor track record of late, said Clark, with the company being involved in the cement cartel in the 1990s and its expansion into Africa in the 2000s burdening it with substantial debt.
However, it has successfully managed to restructure its business after the Covid-19 pandemic to reduce its debt from R5.2 billion to less than R1 billion.
Clark is weary of investing in PPC until after the 2024 elections, as its revenue has remained flat due to a lack of demand from declining government expenditure on infrastructure.
“The cement industry in South Africa is stuck between a rock and a hard place,” Clark said, with declining infrastructure expenditure and a stagnant economy.
However, most companies say that a turnaround should occur after the 2024 elections when there is political certainty and maybe a change in government.
The industry needs underlying demand from the government to improve its financial performance and unlock its efficiencies of scale.
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