Rand set to hit R16.75/USD by end of 2025

The outlook is mixed for major African currencies going into the next year, with South Africa’s rand set to outperform and Nigeria’s naira facing more pain before things get better, according to Ebury Partners.

Four of the seven African currencies monitored by Ebury are seen holding their ground or gaining in 2025, with the other three extending losses, the London-based firm said in a report.

The analysis is based on the economic fundamentals of each country and the outlook for commodity prices.

“The wide-ranging idiosyncrasies inherent in Africa ensure that we hold a rather diverse view on the currencies,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, in the report.

“The strength of macroeconomic fundamentals is disproportionately important for the region’s currencies. Commodity prices are also an important determinant.”

Ebury has pencilled in losses for the Angolan kwanza, Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira in 2025.

The rand is seen extending this year’s rally, while the Kenyan shilling, Ugandan shilling and Zambian kwacha “are well placed to hold their own,” Ryan said.

Ebury’s view is that South Africa’s rand is forecast to gain 5% to 16.75 per dollar.