Money pouring out of South Africa

South Africa’s current account deficit widened more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2023, as dividend and interest payments to foreign investors resulted in the biggest outflow since the second quarter of 2022.

The overall balance on the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, expanded to an annualized deficit of 2.3% of gross domestic product, or R166 billion, from a revised 0.5% of GDP in the prior quarter, the South African Reserve Bank said in a statement on Thursday. 

The median estimate of eight economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a shortfall of 1.2% of GDP. 

South Africa has now posted a current account gap for a seventh straight quarter.

The deficit meant the full-year shortfall was 1.6% of GDP, the deepest in four years. 

The deeper-than-expected quarterly deficit was largely driven by a bigger shortfall in the services, income and current transfer account of R253.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to R215.4 billion in the prior three months. 

The main contributor to the increased shortfall was a larger deficit on the primary income account “mainly be attributed to higher dividend payments by companies across the board,” the central bank said.

The data may weigh on the rand, which is among the worst-performing emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg this year. It has depreciated 2.7% against the dollar.

Current account balance

The deficit on the current account of the balance of payments widened to R165.5 billion (2.3% of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a revised R34.4 billion (0.5% of GDP) in the third quarter.

Trade surplus

South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed from R181.1 billion in the third quarter of 2023 to R88.1 billion in the fourth quarter as the value of merchandise imports increased more than that of goods exports.

Volumes of imports

The increase in the value of merchandise imports and exports of goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2023 reflected both higher volumes and prices.

Prices of exports and imports

South Africa’s terms of trade – including gold – deteriorated further in the fourth quarter of 2023 as the rand price of imported goods and services increased more than that of exports.