Godongwana to miss a huge opportunity

South Africa’s Finance Minister is unlikely to formally adopt a fiscal anchor in this week’s budget, opting to wait until at least October to introduce the rule aimed at curbing public debt, according to a Bloomberg poll.

Enoch Godongwana pledged in November that he would finalise a proposal for a fiscal anchor this year, a step seen as crucial to putting South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio on a sustained downward path. The metric is projected to peak in the current fiscal year. 

Since 2021, the government has targeted a primary budget surplus — where revenue exceeds non-interest spending — and is on track to post a third consecutive positive balance this year, underscoring its push to restore fiscal credibility.

The National Treasury is likely to adopt a new debt rule “later this year or in 2027”, probably in the form of a legislated fiscal framework rather than a strict numerical target, Citigroup economist Gina Schoeman said. 

She’s among seven of nine economists in a Bloomberg survey who reckon Godongwana won’t formally announce the new framework when he delivers his budget speech at 14:00 on Wednesday.

The minister is more likely to provide updated guidance on plans for adopting a fiscal anchor, Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Matheny wrote in a note.

“However, the messaging is at this stage likely to be general and to fall short of a formal announcement,” with the latter possibly coming at the minister’s mid-term budget update expected in October, he said. 

Options for the anchor include a headline deficit limit, a primary balance target, or a debt-to-GDP ceiling, Tatonga Rusike, an economist at Bank of America, said.

“A credible fiscal rule could lead to lower bond yields, improve creditworthiness and reduce South Africa’s risk premium.”