Eskom collapse
Eskom has missed its own performance targets and is a long way from ensuring load-shedding is a thing of the past. This represents a dismal fall from grace for the once-great power utility.
On Friday, 9 May 2025, Eskom announced that its year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is 56.77%, down slightly from 58.97% during the same period last year.
This is significantly lower than Eskom’s own EAF target of reaching 70% by March 2025, which it stated would eliminate load-shedding in South Africa.
Eskom said if its EAF improved to around 70%, load-shedding would be a thing of the past, and South Africa would achieve electricity security.
Eskom Chairman Mteto Nyati also stated that their Generation Recovery Plan would be completed by 31 March 2025, marking the end of load-shedding.
“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.
“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”
This did not happen. Instead of moving towards the EAF target of 70%, Eskom has missed all its EAF targets and is moving backwards.
The power utility continues to consume a large amount of diesel to operate its open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) fleet, ensuring the lights remain on.
In the 2026 financial year to date, from 1 April to 8 May 2025, Eskom spent R2.43 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet, generating 415.91 GWh.
This is significantly higher than the 175.20 GWh generated during the same period last year, indicating that all is not well at the power utility.
Some consolation is that Eskom’s diesel expenditure is expected to decline as maintenance activities wind down and additional units return from long-term repairs during winter.
It should be noted that the OCGT fleet was never intended to be used for long periods to complement the coal fleet.
Instead, it was designed as a peaking power station, intended to be used during peak hours and in emergencies to supplement the national grid’s electricity supply.
In 2017, for example, Eskom spent virtually no money on diesel and only generated 29 GWh through its OCGT fleet. This is normal.
However, as the power utility’s coal power plants’ performance plummeted, it started to use OCGTs to become part of its base load power fleet.
Eskom’s diesel bill increased from under R1 billion per year to R34 billion in 2024. This vast increase was needed to avoid higher load-shedding levels.
It further illustrates how rapidly Eskom collapsed, forcing it to take drastic measures to avoid hitting high power cut levels.
The first load-shedding in winter
Eskom’s performance has improved significantly over the last year. In 2024, there was no load-shedding during winter, which was widely welcomed.
The average unplanned outages during winter were 12.3 GW, significantly below the Winter 2024 base-case projection of 14 GW.
Eskom presented its 2025 Winter Outlook on 5 May 2025, stating that it did not anticipate implementing load shedding if unplanned outages remained below 13,000 MW.
If outages increase to 15,000 MW, load-shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at Stage 2.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said, despite current pressures, the system is in a significantly stronger position than in past winters.
“We also continue to expand capacity. Three major Eskom projects are on track to bring an additional 2,500 MW onto the grid, a crucial milestone toward full recovery,” he said.
However, despite the tough talk by Eskom and telling South Africans how well it is doing, it did not take long for disaster to strike.
On Tuesday, 13 May 2025, Eskom announced the implementation of Stage 2 load-shedding during the evening peak.
It anticipates this load-shedding to last until Thursday, 15 May 2025, to manage limited generation capacity and ensure continued supply during the working days.
This decision follows the delayed return of generation units amounting to 3,120 MW, and an additional loss of 1,385 MW in the past 24 hours due to unplanned breakdowns.
The primary reason for this setback is the delay in returning several units from planned maintenance.
These delays, coupled with an unplanned capacity loss that has now temporarily exceeded 13,000 MW, align with the risk scenarios shared in our Winter 2025 Outlook.
Eskom said it is currently emerging from an intensive maintenance cycle, which is essential for long-term reliability.
However, it temporarily reduces system flexibility and resilience, making the grid more sensitive to unexpected disruptions.
Eskom Energy Availability Factor
Since 2019, Eskom has experienced a general downward trend in its EAF, which has manifested in the country’s widespread load shedding.
At the beginning of 2019, Eskom’s EAF was just over 70%. Since then, it has deteriorated, and in 2023 and 2024, it dipped below 50%.
Under the new management team, Eskom’s EAF briefly peaked at just over 70% in 2024. However, it has plummeted to well below 60% since then.
In the current financial year, from 1 April to 8 May 2025, Eskom’s EAF was 56.77%. This is lower than last year and much lower than its 70% target.
Eskom’s Planned Capacity Loss Factor
Eskom’s Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF) represents the power loss resulting from planned maintenance at its power plants.
It is helpful to measure the amount of maintenance Eskom has done on its generation units over the last few years.
The data shows a general upward trend in the maintenance of the generation units since 2019.
Eskom’s Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor
The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) represents the amount of power loss due to unplanned causes, such as breakdowns.
The UCLF has experienced an upward trend since 2019, representing an ongoing degradation of Eskom’s power fleet.
However, from mid-2023 to mid-2024, Eskom’s UCLF decreased, which is a positive sign as it signals fewer power unit breakdowns.
However, since then, the UCLF have seen a sharp reversal and has been on an upward trajectory ever since.
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