Eskom in serious trouble

Eskom has failed to meet its own energy availability factor (EAF) targets, which shows that things are not well at the power utility.

The energy availability factor shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance.

If the EAF can be improved to around 70%, load-shedding will be a thing of the past, and South Africa will have electricity security.

In October 2022, the Eskom board and former public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan unveiled its EAF targets for the next three years.

They set an energy availability factor target of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.

On 22 January 2023, Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.

“It will take at least two years to improve the energy availability factor from the current 58% to 70%,” Makwana said at the time.

However, Eskom’s latest performance statistics revealed that the EAF for the latest financial year, from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025, was 60.6%.

From 1 to 3 April 2025, the year-to-date EAF stands at 56.58%, nearly unchanged from the same period last year of 56.8%.

These numbers showed that Eskom failed to meet its targets, despite numerous promises that it was making good progress.

This means South Africa’s power system remains vulnerable and load-shedding could return at short notice.

“The power system is constrained due to ongoing increased planned maintenance and high electricity demand driven by overcast weather conditions nationwide,” Eskom said.

Of particular concern is that Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati was confident that load-shedding would be history by the end of March 2025.

He explained that Eskom implemented an extensive two-year maintenance plan in March 2023 to end rolling blackouts.

“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.

“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”

Although this deadline has passed, Eskom’s energy availability factor at the start of the financial year is still below 60%.

Nyati, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane, and electricity minister Kgosientso Ramokgopa are yet to tell South Africans that load-shedding has ended.

The charts below, courtesy of EE Business Intelligence MD Chris Yelland, show Eskom’s performance over the last five years.

Energy availability factor (EAF)

Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor

Planned Capacity Loss Factor