Eskom warns of high likelihood of load-shedding in the future

Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030, published in October 2025, warned that load-shedding is likely to return.

Energy analyst Chris Yelland pointed to this publication when asked whether South Africans should expect rolling blackouts in the future.

Yelland said instead of giving his views, Eskom’s own projections were a better source of what to expect regarding load-shedding.

In its report, Eskom uses the term ‘unserved energy’ instead of ‘load-shedding’ to refer to rolling blackouts.

Officially, unserved energy refers to electricity demand from customers that the power system cannot supply. Simply put, it is a blackout.

This could be due to shortages in generation capacity, transmission bottlenecks, or distribution failures.

The Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030 indicated a high likelihood of load-shedding in 2029 and 2030.

Eskom explained that generation inadequacy is the primary driver of unserved energy across scenarios and years.

It said unserved energy levels start to increase in 2029, driven by the retirement of 5.26 GW of coal capacity.

In simple terms, shutting down coal-fired power stations will introduce a temporary supply gap and push unserved energy upwards.

Eskom trusts in building and launching 6 GW of new Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power stations to mitigate its generation shortfall.

Eskom said these gas power stations would provide the necessary system relief and reduce unserved energy to manageable levels.

However, there is a high risk that these power stations will be delayed and will not come online as expected.

Should there be a delay, which is highly likely given Eskom’s track record, there will be a substantial increase in load-shedding in 2030.

“The gap created by the shutdown of baseload capacity without adequate replacement is therefore a key factor contributing to the observed rise in unserved energy,” it said.

Why load-shedding eased in South Africa

Yelland told the State of the Nation podcast that the easing of load-shedding is a result of a combination of factors.

The first is Eskom’s improved performance. The reliability of its coal-fired power stations has improved significantly over the last two years.

The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) increased to 64.95% year to date, underscoring the progress made in restoring reliability and enhancing system stability.

Eskom said that the improvement in EAF reinforces energy security, grid stability, and security of the national electricity supply.

The EAF was bolstered by fewer breakdowns, which, in turn, led to a lower unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF).

However, this was not the only reason South Africa’s power supply stabilised, and why load-shedding ended.

Yelland explained that the private sector invested large amounts into self-generation, which ranges from rooftop solar installations to large renewable projects.

The increased self-generation has lowered demand for Eskom electricity, which has relieved pressure on the grid.

High electricity prices have also driven people to alternative energy sources, which include using gas for heating and solar geysers.

The higher prices have also forced households and businesses to become more energy efficient. This includes installing low-energy devices and products.

“We are all thinking of what we can do to use less electricity. This ranges from optimising pool pumps to other ways to lower usage,” he said.

Yelland described the combination of these factors as demand destruction. “Over the last 10 years, the demand for Eskom electricity has progressively reduced,” he said.

“The lower demand has been very helpful in reducing load-shedding because there is not so much pressure on the generation plants,” he said.