One number haunts Eskom

Eskom continues to fall far short of its self-imposed 70% energy availability factor (EAF) target, which is a thorn in the power utility’s side.

On Friday, 30 January 2026, Eskom said that its EAF increased to 64.95% year to date. This increase should be commended, as it underscores Eskom’s progress in restoring reliability and enhancing system stability.

“The improvements in EAF reinforce energy security, grid stability and security of the national electricity supply,” it said.

Better reliability meant Eskom had fewer breakdowns, which, in turn, decreased the unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF).

Between 23 and 29 January 2026, average unplanned outages decreased to 8,362 MW from last year’s level at this time of 12,993 MW.

Over the same period, the UCLF fell to 17.27%, a significant improvement of 9.90 percentage points from 27.17% recorded during the same period last year.

However, it should be noted that Eskom has also significantly decreased its planned maintenance over this period.

Its Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF) averaged 10.46%, compared to 15.82% in the previous financial year.

“This reflects our strategy to enhance plant reliability, strengthen operational stability and support long-term fleet performance,” Eskom said.

It added that the reduced maintenance requirements are the result of the intensive maintenance programme implemented last year.

This maintenance exceeded historical levels over the past three years and focused on restoring fleet reliability.

“The benefits of this approach are already evident in the continued decline of unplanned outages,” Eskom said. The power utility added that the improvement in EAF has reduced its reliance on expensive diesel generation.

Eskom’s EAF is still well below its 70% target

When looking at Eskom’s press statements, it quickly becomes clear that one number stands out – 70% EAF.

It regularly references 70% and even uses it in strange ways, such as claiming the number of times it hit this target over a specific time frame.

Eskom seems desperate to tell everyone it is hitting the 70% EAF target, although it falls well short of achieving it.

The main reason is that Eskom has regularly promoted this as its core performance benchmark and promised South Africans that it would hit it.

Eskom stated that if its EAF improved to around 70%, load-shedding would be a thing of the past and South Africa would achieve electricity security.

With this critical number in mind, Eskom set targets for an EAF of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.

Eskom missed these targets by a country mile. By May 2025, Eskom’s year-to-date EAF was 56.43%, well below its 70% target.

Eskom’s results for the six months ended 30 September 2025 showed that its EAF for the period was 62.41%, down from 62.94% a year earlier.

Its latest figures show that it has improved to 64.95%, which is another step in the right direction. This is positive news.

However, despite the improvement, it is still nowhere close to the 70% target it planned to achieve a year ago.

It is also missing its new targets. The power utility confirmed that it did not meet the new half-year shareholder compact target of 65%.

Eskom reiterated in its Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) that it aspires to achieve an EAF of 70%.