Warning about an uprising in South Africa worse than the July 2021 riots

Independent economist Duma Gqubule has warned that South Africa is on the edge, with a high risk of an uprising in the near future.

He shared his views on South Africa’s challenges during a panel discussion at the North West University’s Business School.

Gqubule, who founded the Centre for Economic Development and Transformation (CEDT), is a well-known commentator on South African economic policy.

He painted a grim picture of South Africa’s municipalities, with millions of citizens suffering through poor service delivery.

This, in turn, created significant frustration, which can lead to social unrest and protests across South Africa.

“The country is on the edge at the moment. I think that we are going to have an uprising very soon, and it’s going to be worse than July 2021,” said Gqubule.

“South Africans are on edge, and in many cases, they are irrational. We have now reached a stage where it’s at a boiling point.”

Gqubule’s view aligns with that of Frans Cronje Private Clients, which said that South Africa is on the edge of widespread social unrest.

The firm’s Shadow State Rising report revealed a 500% rise in public protests from 2008 to 2025, reaching over 300 a year.

It also noted that the share of protests that turned violent has risen from under 10% to over 30% in the same period.

The growing number of violent protests indicates a decline in state capacity and the police’s inability to manage protests and unrest.

One of the primary reasons for the increased protests is a lack of economic growth, which, in turn, leads to social ills like unemployment.

According to Frans Cronje Private Clients, the situation could lead to more organised forms of violence aimed at destabilising the state.